Below an interesting excerpt from THEO TRADE, LLC
Few Countries In Recession
The chart below provides support for this notion that uncertainty is about less important issues as the number of countries in a recession is expected to hit a record low in 2018. This isn’t a perfect indicator since the number of countries in a recession might not matter as much because the number could be swayed by only the small ones. However, the counterpoint to that is it would be almost impossible for only the big countries to be in a recession. This means when there’s a low amount of countries in a recession, the big ones are doing well. This chart shows how broad based the recovery has been as Brazil and China are having good years. India has experienced a slight slowdown which is expected to rebound in 2018. It is a bit disconcerting to see everything working so well. To me, it’s reminiscent of the roaring 1920s. Whenever everything is perfect, it doesn’t usually last long. The chart below goes a few years into the future. While I wouldn’t go as far as saying the 2018 projection is wrong, I think it’s unlikely the record will continually be broken the following 3 years. You can’t just draw a line and continue a trend forever. If that was the case, there would have been no housing burst and stocks would always go up about 8% per year. Don’t get complacent, as this won’t last forever.