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China Trade Balance (Mar), which came at CNY 18.8 bln vs exp CNY 250.0 bln, with exports -14.6% y/y (in yuan terms), while imports were -12.3% y/y (yuan terms), all components being a big miss, that has sent the rate at its day lows of 0.7610 from 0.7675/80 (AUD).
It is interesting to see Chinese export numbers missing big. While Danske Bank’s Flemming J. Nielsen writes that the big miss might be due to distortions in product supply lines around the celebration of the Chinese New Year, the market is still reacting.
Below, a chart of the Australian Dollar Futures traded on Globex shows how they have traded lower on the day and are trading lower in general.
One thing remains apparent, and that is that we seem quite distant from exiting a cycle of weak global demand with China continuing to struggle. Check out the last MMA article on the current cycle of low crude prices and a weakening Chinese economy, “Crude Analysis of Crude: I Enter the Center of the Cycle!”
[…] attention to indications of a weaker Chinese economy as crude oil prices plummeted this year. (See, Cycle of Weak Global Demand: Chinese Export Number Misses Big! and Crude Analysis of Crude: I Enter the Center of the […]
[…] to indications of a weaker Chinese economy as crude oil prices plummeted this year. (See, Cycle of Weak Global Demand: Chinese Export Number Misses Big! and Crude Analysis of Crude: I Enter the Center of the […]
[…] cycle of cheap energy, a strong dollar, and weak global demand (including a weak China), first described in “Crude Analysis of Crude: I Enter the Center of the Cycle”, might […]